Final final results

Of course, when I said "final" last week it was just a figure of speech. ;-)

Orange County now has the final and official tallies for the 2005 election. Check out the results by precinct as well.

Sorry I don't have time to format it all pretty this time...

Chapel Hill Mayor
Candidate Votes Percent
Kevin C. Foy 4289 77.78%
Kevin A. Wolff 1178 21.36%
Write-In 47 0.85%

Chapel Hill Town Council (4 seats available)
Candidate Votes Percent
Jason Baker 1240 6.52%
Robin Cutson 1625 8.54%
Laurin Easthom 3788 19.91%
Ed Harrison 3106 16.33%
Mark Kleinschmidt 3772 19.83%
Will Raymond 2336 12.28%
Walker Rutherfurd (WITHDRAWN) 0 0.00%
Bill Thorpe 3040 15.98%
Write-In 114 0.60%

Carrboro Mayor
Candidate Votes Percent
Mark H. Chilton 1337 62.54%
Alex Zaffron 776 36.30%
Write-In 25 1.17%
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Carrboro Alderman (3 seats available)
Candidate Votes Percent
Catherine DeVine 601 10.25%
Jacquelyn M. Gist 1545 26.34%
Randee Haven-O'Donnell 1280 21.82%
John Herrera 1247 21.26%
David Marshall 437 7.45%
Katrina Ryan 736 12.55%
Write-In 20 0.34%

Chapel Hill-Carrboro Board of Education (3 seats available)
Candidate Votes Percent
Jeff Danner 3282 16.00%
Jean Hamilton 5726 27.92%
Pam Hemminger 5439 26.52%
Lisa Stuckey 5949 29.00%
Write-In 116 0.57%
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Hillsborough Mayor
Candidate Votes Percent
Joe Phelps 546 47.89%
Tom Stevens 589 51.67%
Write-In 5 0.44%

Hillsborough Town Commissioner (2 seats available)
Candidate Votes Percent
Frances Dancy 653 33.83%
Mike Gering 689 35.70%
Paul Newton 573 29.69%
Write-In 15 0.78%
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Special Referendum - Orange County School District
Position Votes Percent
For 1156 22.05%
Against 4087 77.95%

City of Mebane Council Member (3 seats available)
Candidate Votes Percent
Jill Auditori 44 28.21%
Tim Bradley 49 31.41%
James E. Hooks 37 23.72%
Bob Hupman 26 16.67%
Write-In 0 0.00%

City of Mebane Council Member (Unexpired Term)
Candidate Votes Percent
Everette Greene 19 33.33%
Roger Kirk Parker 14 24.56%
Clifton (Cliff) T. Wilkinson 24 42.11%
Write-In 0 0.00%



Darn. Even with the provisionals counted, as Tom Jensen pointed out to me I'm still ten votes shy of beating what he got when he ran for UNC Student Body President.

Of course, Tom wasn't able to capitalize on motivating the town to vote like I did. I told him not to rely entirely on student votes - it never works. :)

I wonder why the Board of Elections opted not to count Walker's votes if they counted write-ins? He may very well have actually gotten zero votes, but, prior to the election the BOE said they wouldn't count any votes he received. Any thoughts?

I know he got 18 votes at Dogwood Acres where I picked up the tape as soon as the polls closed on election night- extrapolating, I would guess he got about 300 votes.

You've commented before on Cutson's amazing performance in Cedar Falls, 19% there yet 8% overall. Wolff also did great at Cedar Falls, 46% there yet 21% overall.

It's interesting to compute votes per voter by combining the turn-out data and the voting results. You'd expect 4.0 if every voter used all four of their votes. Less that 4.0 indicates some voters voted for fewer that four candidates, perhaps even just one. The average votes per voter is 3.3 with not much variation (standard deviation is 0.2), but Cedar Falls sticks out at 2.8. (Lincoln is also low at 3.0, while Booker Creek is high at 3.7.)

So what's the deal with Cedar Falls? Lots of Cutson-only voters? If 60% of Cutson's voters voted only for her, then the votes per voter ratio for the district would just get up to the average of 3.3. And if those 60% voted for Wolff also, that would explain his big showing there.

Protest votes by disaffected voters? What other possible correlation is there b/w Cutson and Wolff. Is there enough data of the right kind to get an r^2?

Cedar Falls also had the highest percentage for Bush in Chapel Hill Township in 2004

What other possible correlation is there b/w Cutson and Wolff


They were working together. When Wolff was at the polls, he also handed out Cutson literature. For that reason, it does not surprise me that he did well in Cedar Falls.

I know lots of folks who didn't use all four of their votes--my husband and I were among them. I voted for two council reps, as did my DH. I can't speak for DH, but when there is a/are candidate/s I REALLY want to see elected, and I'm ambivalent, about otheres, I vote ONLY for those I WANT to see in office.

So I cast two votes for council and two for school board--and only one of "my" candidates was elected for each board. (Sorry Will and Jeff--did what I could!)

If the folks who were voting over in Cedar Falls are less than happy with the board as it now stands it would make SENSE that they'd vote ONLY for Cutson. She was the candidate whose stands differed MOST from that of the council as it now exists.


FWIW, I ran pairwise correlations of precinct results on all the CH Town Council and Mayor cancidates. The top correlations are listed. Some are positive, and some are negative, but all thos elisted have a "p" values less than 0.05, suggesting these correlations are very unlikely to be due to chance alone.

Cand. Cand. Correlation Signif Prob
Wolff Cutson 0.8549 <.0001
Foy Kleinschmidt 0.7714 <.0001

Cand. Cand. Correlation Signif Prob
Foy Wolff -0.9938 <.0001
Foy Cutson -0.8492 <.0001
Raymond Harrison -0.7683 <.0001
Wolff Kleinschmidt -0.7661 <.0001
Raymond Cutson -0.6271 0.0010
Cutson Kleinschmidt -0.5409 0.0063

Many of these correlations may be due to ideology, but some are just two candidates fighting for one spot, such as Foy-Wolff. I can't tell, for instance, if the Raymond-Harrison negative correlation is an ideological difference or just two candidates fighting for the fourth Town Council seat on many ballots.


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