Get your red, hot results...

This page has all the unofficial stats for Orange County election returns: http://www.co.orange.nc.us/elect/2006general/

As of now (moments after polls closing), we can see the absentee results:

Anderson BaddourFox Stein
Absentee Mail 107 110 211 193
One Stop 2072 1937 3856 2990
Provisional 0 0 0 0
Transfer 0 0 0 0
Total 2179 2047 4067 3183

Referendum Yes No
Absentee Mail 202 103
One Stop 3834 1781
Provisional 0 0
Transfer 0 0
Total 4036 1884

Everything else is as expected....

Issues: 

Total votes: 202

Comments

Val Foushee previously served on the School Board down here. Other than that I don't think any of them had.

I've always considered the BOCC to be an "entry level" office.

Besides Nelson, did any other member serve in another office before being elected to the BOCC? I know Barry Jacobs did not.

I really respect anyone who runs for the BOCC, it is a tough, thankless job that pays squat.

You got that right! :)

I would like to see Nick Didow run for a state office.

I really respect anyone who runs for the BOCC, it is a tough, thankless job that pays squat.

Paul, there are certainly plenty of marks to con into being commissioner ;-)

Will, it would awfully hard for a political novice to win a lege seat unless he or she had lots of their own money (Bill Faison, for example). Kinnaird was a mayor before she went to the Senate, as was Howard Lee before her. Insko was on the BOCC. Hackney, I don't know if he held office before, but he was elected years ago when money meant a lot less than it does today.

Commissioner, that's different, that could be an unknown, outside of the "pecking order" as you put it.

Note I didn't mention a single name as a possible commissioner candidate.

Tom, you got that right - hard to ask for $$$ when there's so many other better causes - for instance, The Women's Center.

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I'm sending them a check next payday.

Biggest problem, for better or worse, you're not much of a fundraiser!

Now that's an idea ;-)

Small problem, I'm party-less. Bigger problem, I'm outspoken. Humongous problem, I don't know where in line to cut.

Will, are you going to run for state senate? :)

Ahhh, the famed OC Dem pecking order... Paul, you've captured in 3 paragraphs the old school hierarchal thinking that's driven local politics since I've been paying attention.

Maybe 2008 is the year the OC order takes a blow. Who knows, someone might even try to cut into the queue ;-).

Well, I would guess all the candidates in OC will dance around the merger issue.

Too bad. We really need to talk about it.

Either that, or forget trying to bring "equality" of funding to the two systems, because there is no way short of merger to do that.

Paul,

I agree with your speculation.

Mrs. Kinnaird has been against forcing school merger from a state perspective. I doubt Mr. Carey would continue with her approach.

M

Well, the "Blue Moon" election, which occurs every 12 years when there are no statewide partisan races, is over and what a difference compared to the last one in 1994. David Price, who lost then, won 65% on Tuesday. Dems picked up at least one and maybe 2 seats in they US House (there will likely be a recount b/w Robin Hayes and Larry Kissell in NC-08; Hayes leads by fewer than 500 votes).

Locally, could Dem candidates have done any better? Price won every single OC precinct, Kinnaird won all but one (she lost Caldwell by 6 votes), all 3 commissioner candidates won overwhelming victories, Pendergrast got 81%; judicial candidates endorsed by the Democrats got 70-80+%.

I know I may get some "brickbats" from some of you, but as a "political junkie" I can't help but thinking forward to 2008, when, unlike this year, there will be a lot at stake in NC. Of course, we will have the Presidential race, already with its first announced candidate (Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa), we will have a Senate race, all 10 statewide council of state races, including an open Governor's race, plus Lt. Gov, State Treasuer and possibly more with no incumbent running.

In OC, we may see some big changes in our legislative delegation. Ellie Kinnaird is likely to retire (too bad, but I understand) and that may cause Verla Insko and/or Bill Faison to run for that seat (assuming he is not elected Speaker of the House or runs for Governor, either of which is unlikely, in my opinion), which would then open their seats (I have absolutely NO inside info on any of this, it is just pure speculation).

If neither of them runs, I look for Moses Carey to run for state senate; if Insko gets in the Senate race, Carey may run for her seat (I believe he is in that district, correct me if I am wrong). Mike Nelson may run too, again either for Senate or for state rep if Insko runs for Senate.

If Faison runs for state Senate (or for governor) that will open his seat; perhaps Barry Jacobs will run again if that happens (I hope so). If he doesn't, that seat will be wide open.

That, of course, would open another commissioner seat, as Carey term ends in 2008, in addition to the two new seats created by the referendum. I would guess Foushee would run in the new District 1, which will elect 2 commissioners, leaving one more open in that district, one open in District 2 and one open at-large.

And, if Nelson or Jacobs (or both) win lege seats in 2008, that will create 1-2 more vacancies on the BOCC.

It will be a very interesting election. I can't wait!

If anyone here is charged with cleaning up signs, please contact me at signs AT citizenwill.org I've sent email to most candidates volunteering to pick up their signs but haven't heard back from more than a few. If you could provide a contact # and what you want done - recycle or return - I'd appreciate it.

I'll be making another round of these precincts on Sunday:

* COKER HILLS (CH) - Church of Reconciliation - 110 Elliott Rd. - Chapel Hill
* COLONIAL HEIGHTS (CO) Smith Middle School 9201 Seawell School Rd. Chapel Hill
* DOGWOOD ACRES (DA) Mary Scroggs Elementary School 501 Kildaire Rd. Chapel Hill
* EASTSIDE (ES) - Ephesus Road School - 1495 Ephesus Church Rd. - Chapel Hill
* ESTES HILLS (EH) - Chapel Hill Public Library - 100 Library Dr. - Chapel Hill
* GLENWOOD (GL) Meadowmont Clubhouse - 301 Old Barn Ln. - Chapel Hill
* GREENWOOD (GR) - General Administration Building - 910 Raleigh Rd. - Chapel Hill
* HOGAN FARMS (HF) Hogan Farms Clubhouse 101 Commons Way Dr. Chapel Hill
* LINCOLN (LI) - Lincoln Center Administration Building - 750 S. Merritt Mill Rd. - Chapel Hill
* MASON FARM (MF) Chapel Hill Kehillah - 1200 Mason Farm Rd. - Chapel Hill
* NORTH CARRBORO (NC) - Homestead Community Center - 600 Homestead Rd. - Chapel Hill
* RIDGEFIELD (RF) - Binkley Baptist Church - 1712 Willow Dr. - Chapel Hill
* TOWN HALL (TH) - Carrboro Town Hall - 301 W. Main St. - Carrboro
* WEAVER DAIRY (WD) Fire Station # 4 1695 Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. - Chapel Hill

* CARRBORO (CB) Carrboro Elementary School Shelton St. - Carrboro
* COUNTRY CLUB (CC) School of Government 400 South Road Knapp/Sanders Bldg/UNC Campus Chapel Hill
* DAMASCUS (DM) Grey Culbreth School 225 Culbreth Dr. Chapel Hill
* EAST FRANKLIN (EA) - Holy Trinity Lutheran Church - 300 E. Rosemary St. - Chapel Hill
* KINGS MILL (KM) - Aldersgate Methodist Church - 632 Laurel Hill Rd. - Chapel Hill
* LIONS CLUB (LC) Carolina Spring Apt. Complex 600 W. Poplar Ave.(1st floor) - Carrboro
* NORTHSIDE (NS) First Baptist Church 106 N. Roberson St. - Chapel Hill
* OWASA (OW) - OWASA Administration Bldg. - 400 Jones Ferry Rd. - Carrboro
* PATTERSON (PA) Chapel Hill Wesleyan Church 7326 Sunrise Road - Chapel Hill
* ST. JOHN (SJ) McDougle Middle School 900 Old Fayetteville Rd. - Carrboro
* WESTWOOD (WW) - Frank Porter Graham School - 101 Smith Level Rd. - Chapel Hill
* WEAVER DAIRY SAT. (WDS) Carol Woods Retirement Community 750 Weaver Dairy Rd. Chapel Hill

Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification - I was thinking more about trying to get numbers on turnout than how those voters broke. For most precincts in Chapel Hill, I couldn't imagine the early voters breaking heavily from the percentages that were tallied on Election Day. But I guess that would still necessarily be an estimate - no way to tell for sure without the grunt work.

Jason, counting the total votes cast per precinct can be done as you suggest, but counting WHO the early voter voted for and reporting it by precinct takes sorting the ballots and retabulating them.

Is it not possible to compare the Voter History in the BOE database to the precinct in which a particular voter lives, and tabulate the results electronically? Once the county updates their voter database, it seems like this is something that could be done very quickly with a few basic sorting commands. Is there something I'm missing?

"Robert, in your precinct voting counts, note that early and absentee votes do not show up at the precint count, so perhaps there is a higher precinct turnout than you are calculating. "

For the first time since early voting started, early votes/absentees will be reported back by precinct, but this retabulation will take place with a deadline of 180 days from now. Each early voting/absentee ballot has the precinct name on it, they will all be put in a precinct by precinct stack, and run back through the tabulators to get the number for each precinct to add to the election day count.

Thanks Fred, I thought that was what you meant. So, what, if anything, can Price do to lay the groundwork?

Will, the rules also say not to lie, cheat, steal, or mess with Pages. As a practical matter, no subcommittee chair with any ambition is going to hold investigative hearings without approval of the chair and the party leadership. I suspect that the leadership will work up a priority list for hearings since timing is everything. The 2008 campaign is already underway.

When I was assigned up there on a sub committee, we had to submit a weekly summary and a long range forecast to the committee chair. As these were pre-email days, it was hand delivered and returned with notes on it from the staff. Typically, they would say things like talk to the chair first, postpone, or provide more information.

Yes, there are rules, and then there are the realities of how business is really done.

Assuming the following:

(1) all 805 of the provisional ballots are validated and counted (they won't ALL be)
(2) the 610 in Orange trend the exact same way as the rest of the votes from Orange (they won't, but it it is likely to be close, according to many people who have seen more of these things than I have)
(3) the 195 in Chatham trend the exact same way as the rest of the votes from Chatham (ditto)

then...

Stein will pick up a net of 8 votes, against Baddour.

I made several umbrellas out of the Stein mailings that I got so I'll be ready for the next rainy day.

correction: It's a ReDefeat Bush umbrella...

In either case, chaos seems to be winning.

The word I've gotten is that there are 610 provisional ballots in Orange and 195 in Chatham. Thanks for the umbrella offer: I actually have a huge Impeach Bush one but didn't have time to run and get it!

Ken,

Yeah, that's just what New Orleans needs -- more chaos. New Orleans is becoming to chaos what Iraq is to terrorism, depending on your point of view. Either New Orleans is creating more chaos, or we've decided to fight chaos there so we don't have to fight it at home.

d

Good to meet you too, David! I'll bring an extra umbrella next time for you.

Since there's no winner and no loser yet, we could very well be comforting the Baddour family in a week or so. But yeah, after watching this campaign from up close, and seeing what these candidates, all of them, have to go through just so that _they_ might serve _us_, the prospect of losing after that is awful. But then, as I told you last night while you were running between the raindrops -- I mean, seriously, I've got an umbrella you can use -- every one of those folks on the ballot have something to admire about them, not the least being their willingness to put up with all those late nights, the mind-numbing boredom of stuffing envelopes, self-appointed backbenchers jabbering at them, the endless schedule of meet-and-greets, the dilemmas about money, the difficulty of staying positive around your volunteers when, sometimes, you feel like dogsh*t. All to serve. Like I told you, I don't have it, the temperament and personality, that would allow me to put up with all that, and so I'm grateful there are people who do. And that's why I'll always be a politicking-in-the-rain-and-wet-socks guy -- that's pretty much the extent of what I can do that's useful.

Does this sound like the overly magnanimous post of someone whose candidate just won? Since he hasn't won, it shouldn't be. And I guarantee that if the situation is reversed, I'll be thinking the same thing, but only after I crawl back out of the bottle.

d

p.s. My understanding is that Orange County BOE staf is researching the validity of their provisional ballots right now, and will report their findings to the board on Tuesday at 4 p.m. At that time the board will decide which to throw out and which to keep, and then they'll run the keepers through right away and get a final count. So, sometime in the late afternoon/early evening on Tuesday we'll know about those Orange County votes.

I feel like i just dried out from standing in the rain all day...

Lions Club had 618 vote on Tuesday. I believe, although I'm not 100% sure, we had 165 early voters for Lions Club. That total is a 20% improvement over the last off year election in 2002 (and that year had a US senate race...)

Also,

Duncan, thanks for talking to me about New Orleans politics and not giving me flack for my Budweiser umbrella.

FYI, the "anti-assessors" in NOLA won yesterday nearly 3-1. I've always suspected that the same folks who supported that campaign are also (coincidentally?) the same folks who want a "smaller footprint" for New Orleans (aka, less black folks). Time will tell.

Take care,

Ken

Fred thanks for the info. I read the rules at on point and took this

(2) Each subcommittee is a part of its committee and is subject to the authority and direction of that committee and to its rules, so far as applicable.

(b)(1) Each committee may conduct at any time such investigations and studies as it considers necessary or appropriate in the exercise of its responsibilities under rule X. Subject to the adoption of expense resolutions as required by clause 6 of rule X, each committee may incur expenses, including travel expenses, in connection with such investigations and studies.

to mean that a committee or sub-committee was free to conduct investigations at its own discretion.

So, let me rephrase. Given that Price has been charged with direct oversight responsibilites over HSA, will Price lay the groundwork for an investigation of HSA related profiteering and financial malfeasance? If so, when?

Hey Duncan - it was fun meeting you yesterday. Really is a nailbiter for 15B. But at least there's no real bad outcome, no matter how much my heart is with and goes out to Adam Stein. And I put in a good word for you with Jane. :) Also, Rumsfeld just resigned...

Ruby, I agree. Nelson ran behind the other 2 because he was a newcomer and it was only about 2000 votes behind, a very good showing in my opinion.

My earlier post was wrong when I said Nelson ran just a bit behind Daniels in northern Orange, he was in fact ahead of Daniels in these precincts. I never expected that.

It was a huge Dem turnout yesterday. Price won every precinct, Kinnaird won all but one, Caldwell, but she only lost by 6 votes there.

Here in Efland, she won by 36; in 2004 she lost by 29.

Let me clarify: by "huge" I meant the margin of Dem victory, it was not a huge turnout, less than 40% of registered voters voted.

Gee Will, since I'm not David Price I guess I can't answer that. But I really appreciate the tenor of your question!

Are the results for Superior Court Judge District 15B final?

Will, a subcommittee chair does not set hearings or investigations. The committee chair and the House Democratic leadership will determine that. Given the long list of needs, it may take a while to get through the entire list. I'm sure that Congr. Price's voice will influence the action.

It's not over in 15B. There are apparently 610 provisional ballots yet to be counted in Orange County, and 100 or so in Chatham. I'm told that Chatham County won't count theirs until a week from Friday (!!What?? Why??), and I haven't heard when OC plans to count theirs.

It's a barnburner!

Oops, make that 195 provisionals in Chatham.

I've been told that, at least in Chatham's case, they'll run the provisional ballots through the machine to assess the impact of those votes on the results, and then back out the ballots of people they deem to have not been properly registered. (I assume they do this so that they can declare an official outcome, if possible, even if they still have to go through and check the registrations of each of the provisional voters.) I'm not sure what Orange County does. If anyone knows better how this works, please feel free to chime in here.

(In most cases, I understand, ballots are provisional because there's some disagreement about registration, but the person is allowed to go ahead and mark a ballot so as not to lose their opportunity. There may be other reasons I'm not aware of. Again, if you know better than me on this, feel free to jump in!)

Nailbiter!

I was surprised to see the referendum win so easily, I thought it would lose.

Nelson made a good showing, he even held his own here in the 12 northern Orange precincts, which I though Daniels would win, as he did in 2004, but he was a poor third and Nelson was right behind him.

I thought Nelson would run 4-5,000 or so behind Gordon and Jacobs, but it was only about 2000.

Leave it to Mark M to rain on a pretty dern good day!Congratulations to Rep. Price and it will be super to have him as Chair as the Homeland Security Appropriations Submcte. And it will be particularly super to have a woman Speaker of the House for the first time in history!

Robert, in your precinct voting counts, note that early and absentee votes do not show up at the precint count, so perhaps there is a higher precinct turnout than you are calculating.

At first I chalked that 2,000-vote difference up to homophobia, but then I realized that Mike was technically a challenger so you would expect him to get less votes than the incumbents. I see this as a total repudiation of the foolish whispering last Spring that Mike wouldn't win because he was gay. Whoever was responsible for that FUD just doesn't know Orange County very well.

David, how will quickly will Price move to hold HSA profiteering investigations?

I voted against Acuff, not for Price. Ordinarily I would have just not voted for either of them, but Acuff represents the collective madness that is really burning out-of-control and I wanted to at least give his bs a smack, however inconsequential. Price and the Democrats in general represent the firemen that watched complacently as the madness grew from a spark to a smoldering ember to a destructive blaze and then began brandishing a water pistol in the general direction of the nearly destroyed building. It's nice to see some sand thrown into the gears, but it's pretty hard to believe that any more than 30% or so of the populace has a daily relationship with reality.

michelle, unfortunately with the passage of the districting referendum we've made it structurally more difficult to build voting coalitions across different axes.

That said, there's nothing stopping the BOC from doing a phase II improvement. Will it take 15 years?

Looks like my prayer was answered and my prediction was wrong. Still a bit nervous when the data is disaggregated to see evidence of under currents that suggest more that Republicans were upset at current state of our nation (domestic and foreign) as opposed to Democrats really demonstrating any great promise in leadership. Also Jessiecrats....well they always concern me and make me nervous. You know the people who register Democrat but consistently vote for Republican candidates when given the choice between a woman, Black or other ethnic minority candidate...(remember Gannt, Judge Frye and Judge Wynn, oh and Wanda Bryant races?) I certainly do. While I am pleased with the results there still needs to be a serious discussion about what the Dems truly will deliver to make a difference in the lives of those at the bottom and ethnic minorities. All too often we have blindly given our allegiance to the Democratic party and the conditions of our neighborhoods, children and families have changed very little, remained the same or worsened even under Democratic leadership. Nancy Pelosi's proposed agenda is admirable...however will the Dems muster the political courage and will to push the tough legislation through or will they crumble under the weight of resistance from the other side as they have in the past?

Disappointed?

I worked alongside many residents of Dogwood Acres Precinct to hand out voter guides to every registered Dem, to be at the polls through all that rain, and to call EVERY registered Dem for which we had a phone number on election day. The result? 35% total turnout.

35% turnout? They Board of Elections doesn't split up the D v. R turnout, so I did some rough calculations. In each partisan race the Dem got about 700 votes and there are 1234 registered Democrats. That means about 57% turnout. That is low compared to a Presidential year, when it is in the upper 90s, but....disappointed?

I don't know.

Great news in Chatham - the debunking continues with Tom Vanderbeck winning and the bogus voting distric plan rebuffed.

Great work by the grassroots activists against the Home Builder Association/Big Development/Profits First Dinosaurs.

my bad.
called it too early. There aren't usually very many transfer and provisionals. I'm guessing 70 votes is within the range of recount?

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