Four More DAZE...

It's the day after Halloween and even though I was downtown 'til past midnight I went running early and other than the people who were still up there weren't many others about..........I found two cell phones, many shoes (no pairs), pieces of costumes, diapers and lots of beer bottles. I find that either "lite" beer drinkers litter more than traditionally caloric beer drinkers or "lite" beer has taken over the market; yet another sign of the distressing decay of the IQ level in our society.........I digress, I guess.........Four more days 'til this election is over. What I want to know is: who is going to win and why? If you post the right answer here, just think of the glory! The world will be your bivalve!

Issues: 

Total votes: 126

Comments

Give us a little background of how many people typically vote in off season elections? It is kinda difficult to predict winners without this. Also, do the more left or more right always show up here? In most parts of the country the more right always shows up whereas the left sometimes does?

background please.....

Also, the merger effect on confused voters may have some impact.

I assume that the question about "right" and "left" pertains to the bond measures? Because, unless I'm missing something, I don't see any candidate on the ballot in southern Orange who would particularly appeal to "right" voters (at least not in the way that term is used "in most parts of the country").

Doug Schworer and Terri Tyson I believe are concerned about keeping taxes low and suggest no or undecided on enery efficiency and green space bonds - I believe .

Hi Jay, that's a good question, but it's so huge! This whole site is background. :}

Off the top of my head, I think about 7,000-8,000 people vote in Chapel Hill races, and the rule of thumb used to be you needed about 3,000 votes to get into the top 4 and win. This calculus can change when there are so many candidates, though. You're right to point out the merger, that will likely bring out a lot more conservative voters. I think more people voting is a positive thing, even if I disagree with them. This year, dealing with the University is FINALLY on voters' radar screen. Although it's hard to tell what many people think is the best approach, and what they think each candidate's approach will actually be. Bachman isn't the only one who I think might not do what she says - but this is more due to candiates not fully understanding the issue than intentional misleading of voters.

As for the "left-right" question, the thing I like about local politics is that it's based much more on actual people and actual positions. Although there is a lot of political clique-ism, and some people are known to get extremely partisan about that. As you pointed out, there are candidates this year that appear to be more vocally "conservative" than the rest. You have to remember, that in most places those candidates would be considered Democrats, or very moderate Republicans at best. I think in our local races voters are more interested in positions on growth than ideology. Although, I can't say it's not a factor.

What we often forget is that most of the groups that issue opinions and endorsements in the race only represent a handful of voters. The Chamber of Commerce, the Sierra Club, local papers... it's good to know their opinion, but only small group of loyalists vote that party line. In local elections, individuals are influenced by PERSONAL contact. Our community is small enough that many voters either know one of the candidates personally or know someone who does. It's also small enough that door-to-door canvassing can reach a large number of voters, and that equals personal contact (if you do a good job).

Now I'm going to work on my predictions!

Right-Left

Most smart people are not purely right or left. The labels always taint perceptions of people. For instance, I am considered to be the most right wing person to ever speak out in our area. However, I support a woman's right to a an abortion, I support gay marraige, and I also support gay adoption. My very liberal buddy who votes only for Democrats, strongly disagrees with me on two of the above three issues.

People who are 100% to the right or left are boring, and they are rare.

Todd Melet

http://www.hippyhillnews.com

Can the number of letters to the editor predict the winners? Maybe, maybe not. Here's a count done by Joe C that would seem to suggest a five-way battle for fourth place:

Here is the latest summary of all the published endorsement letters, taken from the CH News of 10-26, 10-29, 11-02 and the CH Herald of 10-26, 10-25. I believe that the only letters still to come will be in tomorrow's DTH.

Bachman 6

Barfield 0

Freund 8

Greene 27

Hill 21

Juliano 7

McSwain 0

Rohrbacher 6

Schworer 2

Strom 34

Tyson 2

Ward 6

OK, I'm sure I'll regret this, but here are my predictions for the Town Council race. The other races are either too hard for me to read (Carrboro, School Board) or too obvious (Mayors).

It's too hard to rank them, but I'll put them in chunks. I am wildly guessing at the order. Even though I put 6 in the top chunk, only 4 can win.

TOP:

Sally Greene

Bill Strom

Jim Ward

Cam Hill

Dianne Bachman

Rudy Juliano

MIDDLE:

Andrea Rohrbacher

Terri Tyson

Thatcher Freund

LAST:

Doug Schworer

Woodrow Barfield

Mike McSwain

NOTE: These are not my endorsements. You can read them and my letter to the editor here: http://lotusmedia.org/blog/2003_11_01_archive.html#106795495073418628

I agree with Ruby's classifications and I'll go out on a limb and give my predictions rank ordered:

12) Woodrow Barfield

11) Michael McSwain

10) Doug Schworer

9) Thatcher Freund

8) Terri Tyson

7) Andrea Rohrbacher

6) Rudy Juliano

5) Dianne Bachman

4) Jim Ward

3) Cam Hill

2) Bill Strom

1) Sally Greene

 

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