Well this was a very interesting year. No-one in the survey predicted Jim Ward coming first (by 7 votes!), so we have no absolute victor. In fact as a group, the averages of our predictions were off base in a few places. I guess that goes to show, that we should do more thinking for ourselves, or get out into other neighborhoods more (as I think Fred told us last time).
Where did the hive mind get it right? Collectively, we predicted the correct results for all the mayoral races (cinch), we got the Aldermen right except the top two, and we got the top and bottom right in the school board race. For a bunch of people from Chapel Hill (10 of the 21 participants) we sure did't seem to know Chapel Hill voters very well!
Three people got the order right in Carrboro: Ed Neely, Patrick McDonough, and one person who declined to give their name. And only one person got the order of the School Board race right: Damon Seils!
A lot of us got knocked out of the running by listing incumbents Joal Broun and Jamezetta Bedford as top voter getters, when challengers actually took the top slot in both of their races!
Shading indicates the actual electoral results, bold indicates the survey preference.
Chapel Hill Mayor1st - wins
2nd - loses
Rating Average
ActualRank
Kevin Foy90.5% (19)
9.5% (2)
1.10
1
Kevin Wolff9.5% (2)
90.5% (19)
1.90
2
Chapel Hill Town Council1st - wins
2nd - wins
3rd - wins
4th - wins
5th - loses
6th - loses
7th - loses
Rating Average
ActualRank
Matt Czajkowski0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
4.8% (1)
4.8% (1)
33.3% (7)
57.1% (12)
6.43
4
Sally Greene57.1% (12)
38.1% (8)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
4.8% (1)
0.0% (0)
1.62
2
Cam Hill4.8% (1)
4.8% (1)
14.3% (3)
52.4% (11)
23.8% (5)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
3.86
5
Will Raymond0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
4.8% (1)
4.8% (1)
19.0% (4)
42.9% (9)
28.6% (6)
5.86
7
Penny Rich0.0% (0)
4.8% (1)
9.5% (2)
9.5% (2)
52.4% (11)
19.0% (4)
4.8% (1)
4.86
6
Bill Strom38.1% (8)
42.9% (9)
14.3% (3)
4.8% (1)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
1.86
3
Jim Ward0.0% (0)
9.5% (2)
57.1% (12)
23.8% (5)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
9.5% (2)
3.52
1
Carrboro Mayor1st - wins
2nd - loses
3rd - loses
Rating Average
ActualRank
Mark Chilton100.0% (21)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
1.00
1
Chuck Morton0.0% (0)
42.9% (9)
57.1% (12)
2.57
3
Brian Voyce0.0% (0)
57.1% (12)
42.9% (9)
2.43
2
Carrboro Board of Aldermen1st - wins
2nd - wins
3rd - wins
4th - loses
5th - loses
6th - loses
Rating Average
ActualRank
Frank Abernethy0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
4.8% (1)
4.8% (1)
90.5% (19)
5.86
6
Joal Hall Broun61.9% (13)
28.6% (6)
9.5% (2)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
1.48
2
Dan Coleman14.3% (3)
19.0% (4)
61.9% (13)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
4.8% (1)
2.67
3
Sharon Cook4.8% (1)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
42.9% (9)
52.4% (11)
0.0% (0)
4.38
5
Lydia Lavelle19.0% (4)
52.4% (11)
28.6% (6)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
2.10
1
Katrina Ryan0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
0.0% (0)
52.4% (11)
42.9% (9)
4.8% (1)
4.52
4
Chapel Hill-Carrboro School
Board1st - wins
2nd - wins
3rd - wins
4th - wins
5th - loses
Rating Average
ActualRank
Jamezetta Bedford52.4% (11)
23.8% (5)
4.8% (1)
4.8% (1)
14.3% (3)
2.05
3
Mia Day Burroughs28.6% (6)
23.8% (5)
28.6% (6)
14.3% (3)
4.8% (1)
2.43
1
Michael Kelley4.8% (1)
28.6% (6)
42.9% (9)
14.3% (3)
9.5% (2)
2.95
4
Anetta Streater9.5% (2)
23.8% (5)
14.3% (3)
52.4% (11)
0.0% (0)
3.10
2
Gary Wallach4.8% (1)
0.0% (0)
9.5% (2)
14.3% (3)
71.4% (15)
4.48
5
Hillsborough Mayor1st - wins
?
Rating Average
ActualRank
Tom Stevens100.0% (21)
0.0% (0)
1.00
1
Hillsborough
Town Board1st - wins
2nd - wins
3rd - wins
4th - loses
Rating Average
ActualRank
Eric Hallman57.1% (12)
23.8% (5)
19.0% (4)
0.0% (0)
1.62
2
Evelyn Lloyd23.8% (5)
57.1% (12)
9.5% (2)
9.5% (2)
2.05
1
Brian Lowen9.5% (2)
9.5% (2)
33.3% (7)
47.6% (10)
3.19
3
Bryant Kelly Warren Jr.9.5% (2)
9.5% (2)
38.1% (8)
42.9% (9)
3.14
4
Where do you vote?
Response
Percent
Responses
Chapel Hill
47.6%
10
Carrboro
38.1%
8
Hillsborough
9.5%
2
Mebane
0.0%
0
Unincorporated Orange County - Chapel
Hill-Carrboro School District
4.8%
1
Unincorporated Orange County - Orange
County School District
0.0%
0
Other (please specify)
0.0%
0
Issues:
Comments
Of course the above assumes
Of course the above assumes that a recount doesn't change the results, which it may well do!
Who correctly picked the
Who correctly picked the Czajkowski performance? That person should be the winner.
It was an anonymous
It was an anonymous contestant, a different one than got Carrboro correct. (There were 6 anons, by the way.) Seems like more a of a lucky guess as they also put Cam 1st, Penny 3rd, and Jim last!
haha. Well that would have
haha. Well that would have really been a shocking outcome!
Wow! Talk about getting it
Wow! Talk about getting it wrong, this was it. What would really be revealing is to see the the various sets that voters selected in all of the races. It would also be interesting to get more than anecdotal info on the whys and wherefores.
I know that some folks felt that all of the incumbents in the school board race had done a good job, much like the feelings for those from CH and Carrboro. The several attempts to devise a litmus test for the board races didn't seem to work at all.
The Town races were a challenge to get the order right, not to mention the upset for fourth in CH. Like in 1999 when an incumbent lost in CH (Evans edged out McClintock), the difference was a few votes, but it was an incumbent edging out an incumbent. Of course we will have to wait for the official results.
Jim Ward, the newcomer in 1999 finished first, but fourth in 2003 when newcomer Green finished first. Wish I knew what that means, but I found a 1999 Ward quote that still has punch: “Two qualities capture much of Chapel Hill's character and appeal: a strong sense of community and ability to change with the times without losing a strong sense of place."
Glad I didn't have any money on any of this!
Fred, you mean you didn't
Fred, you mean you didn't put your 10 bucks into the pool? :-)
Newcomers running first
Newcomers running first tends to happen when there's an open seat.
By virtue of not being in office they collect a share of the protest votes against the sitting incumbents.
Quite right. I have also
Quite right. I have also been pointing out that challenger Laurin Easthom came first in Chapel Hill in 2005 (if only by a hair).
Not to say I told you so,
Not to say I told you so, but no one believed me two months ago when
I posted my bet with Neil Offen that
one of the CH incumbents would lose.
Neil I ask again, which local restaurant serves the best
fried crow?