The wisdom of crowds

I was a little worried that the polling in Chapel Hill would screw up the annual Pundit of the Year contest, but since PPP Polls had Penny in 6th and she actually came in 1st, I think we can safely say that pundits had to rely on their own intuition. No-one (not even Penny) predicted Penny would come first in Chapel Hill so no contestants won on the order.

OrangePolitics hat The following people did predict the winners correctly in all of the races though, and most of them put their entries in before Tom Jensen announced the PPP figures anyway: Jason Baker, Penny Rich, Mark Chilton, Erin Crouse, and Greg Bell!  Each of them will get a gift certificate for OP's Zazzle print-on-demand store.

In averaged results, the contestants as a whole picked the winners in every race except for School Board.  However, we got the order wrong on the Chapel Hill Town Council and Carrboro Board of Aldermen due to the success of challengers Penny Rich and Sammy Slade.  Read on for aggregated predictions...

Chapel Hill Mayor:

Mark Kleinschmidt1.171
Matt Czajkowski1.832
Augustus Cho3.173
Kevin Wolff3.834

Chapel Hill Town Council:

Laurin Easthom*1.652
Ed Harrison*2.483
Penny Rich3.781
Gene Pease3.964
Jim Merritt*4.226
Jon Dehart6.397
Will Raymond6.488
Matt Pohlman7.045

Carrboro Mayor:

Mark Chilton*1.001
Brian Voyce2.482
Amanda Ashley2.523

Carrboro Board of Aldermen:

Jacquelyn M. Gist*1.261
Randee Haven-O'Donnell*2.093
Sammy Slade3.042
Sharon Cook3.874
Tim Peck4.745


Hillsborough Town Board:

Mike Gering*1.521
Frances L. Dancy*1.612
Bryant Kelly Warren Jr.2.873


Chapel Hill-Carrboro School Board:

Michelle (Shell) Brownstein2.041
Gregory McElveen*2.482
MaryAnne Gucciardi3.354
J.M. (Joe) Green3.703
Christine Lee4.615
Susana L. Dancy4.836

Click here to view the full prediction results.


I have the distinct and perhaps unfair advantage of having a significant other who likes politics almost as much as I do, which leads to a lot of dinnertime conversations about where we think things are going.  I don't think Erin and I picked the same ordering, but I'm glad to be in good company (including with the other three winners).

Thanks for organizing this, Ruby.  Glad to finally snag some pundit of the year glory after many previous failures!


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