I still can't get over the race for the at-large seat on the County Commissioners. I'm sure no-one was surprised that Bernadette Pelissier won the primary handily. She was a well-qualified and well-organized candidate, and I think she'll be a great addition to the Board. Neloa Jones had very little name recognition, and even less resources to back up her campaign. I was quite impressed with her 20% showing. It demonstrated some real voter concern about the landfill and the racial justice issues that she raised.
But what really shocked me was the nearly 30% voting for Mary Wolff. This was a candidate that had almost no visible campaign other than the ambigious yard signs that will presumably be recycled in the fall for her husband's Republican run for the same seat. Having never heard of her before, and knowing that the Wolffs just moved to the community 3 years ago, I wrote her candidacy off. My expectations were quite wrong, so I decided to dig deeper into these results...
The fact that Wolff did so well raises some questions. The first question that comes to mind is: how much money did she spend? Unfortunately, both she and her husband indicated that they would spend less than $3,000 on their respective campaigns and are therefore not required to report how their campaigns were financed. Given that they clearly pooled resources on signs, I wonder what other expenses she had and whether their combined campaign might exceed $3,000 in spending. (Shades of Cook & Ryan. No?)
Of course, I am also wondering who are the folks who looked at this ballot and decided that Mary Wolff was the best candidate, and how did she reach them (especially on that under-$3k budget)? So I've been reviewing the unofficial results to see what I can see. I learned that Mary Wolff came first in 4 precincts: Caldwell, Cameron Park, Carr, and Cheeks - all in rural Orange County. Neloa Jones came first in 3 strongly African-American precincts - Northside, Tolars, West Hillsborough - as well as in provisional ballots. She was also second (beating Wolff) in 7 other Chapel Hill and Carrboro precincts. The majority of precincts broke down in the same order as the overall vote total.
| Precinct | Registered Voters | Jones | Pelissier | Wolff | Total | J>W W>P | |||
| BATTLE PARK | 942 | 17 | 13.6% | 81 | 64.8% | 27 | 21.6% | 125 | |
| BOOKER CREEK | 1,917 | 55 | 17.1% | 173 | 53.7% | 94 | 29.2% | 322 | |
| CALDWELL | 2,467 | 92 | 18.4% | 188 | 37.6% | 220 | 44.0% | 500 | W |
| CAMERON PARK | 2,361 | 99 | 20.3% | 182 | 37.3% | 207 | 42.4% | 488 | W |
| CARR | 1,004 | 98 | 35.4% | 79 | 28.5% | 100 | 36.1% | 277 | W |
| CARRBORO | 1,605 | 59 | 20.0% | 181 | 61.4% | 55 | 18.6% | 295 | J |
| CEDAR FALLS | 2,278 | 62 | 17.6% | 173 | 49.0% | 118 | 33.4% | 353 | |
| CEDAR GROVE | 1,327 | 103 | 31.0% | 118 | 35.5% | 111 | 33.4% | 332 | |
| CHEEKS | 3,686 | 233 | 30.9% | 248 | 32.9% | 273 | 36.2% | 754 | W |
| COKER HILLS | 1,271 | 58 | 18.2% | 193 | 60.7% | 67 | 21.1% | 318 | |
| COLES STORE | 1,547 | 35 | 12.2% | 172 | 60.1% | 79 | 27.6% | 286 | |
| COLONIAL HEIGHTS | 2,689 | 70 | 17.5% | 243 | 60.6% | 88 | 21.9% | 401 | |
| COUNTRY CLUB | 2,784 | 20 | 25.0% | 38 | 47.5% | 22 | 27.5% | 80 | |
| DAMASCUS | 2,818 | 71 | 19.6% | 177 | 48.9% | 114 | 31.5% | 362 | |
| DOGWOOD ACRES | 2,798 | 64 | 14.5% | 235 | 53.4% | 141 | 32.0% | 440 | |
| EAST FRANKLIN | 2,291 | 30 | 28.0% | 56 | 52.3% | 21 | 19.6% | 107 | J |
| EASTSIDE | 1,785 | 69 | 21.5% | 157 | 48.9% | 95 | 29.6% | 321 | |
| EFLAND | 1,688 | 79 | 21.3% | 150 | 40.4% | 142 | 38.3% | 371 | |
| ENO | 2,562 | 80 | 18.4% | 196 | 45.2% | 158 | 36.4% | 434 | |
| ESTES HILLS | 2,317 | 60 | 14.2% | 267 | 63.0% | 97 | 22.9% | 424 | |
| GLENWOOD | 2,226 | 51 | 15.5% | 177 | 54.0% | 100 | 30.5% | 328 | |
| GRADY BROWN | 3,211 | 82 | 17.4% | 204 | 43.3% | 185 | 39.3% | 471 | |
| GREENWOOD | 2,032 | 38 | 18.7% | 125 | 61.6% | 40 | 19.7% | 203 | |
| HILLSBOROUGH | 1,017 | 51 | 22.0% | 138 | 59.5% | 43 | 18.5% | 232 | J |
| HOGAN FARMS | 2,668 | 135 | 27.3% | 220 | 44.4% | 140 | 28.3% | 495 | |
| KINGS MILL | 2,053 | 44 | 12.1% | 225 | 61.6% | 96 | 26.3% | 365 | |
| LINCOLN | 2,200 | 55 | 33.5% | 60 | 36.6% | 49 | 29.9% | 164 | J |
| LIONS CLUB | 2,692 | 90 | 24.1% | 191 | 51.1% | 93 | 24.9% | 374 | |
| MASON FARM | 2,834 | 34 | 24.5% | 60 | 43.2% | 45 | 32.4% | 139 | |
| NORTH CARRBORO | 2,436 | 81 | 17.2% | 285 | 60.5% | 105 | 22.3% | 471 | |
| NORTHSIDE | 2,126 | 92 | 40.7% | 87 | 38.5% | 47 | 20.8% | 226 | J |
| ORANGE GROVE | 3,143 | 86 | 11.1% | 430 | 55.6% | 258 | 33.3% | 774 | |
| OWASA | 2,647 | 96 | 32.2% | 109 | 36.6% | 93 | 31.2% | 298 | J |
| PATTERSON | 3,915 | 78 | 11.0% | 368 | 52.1% | 261 | 36.9% | 707 | |
| RIDGEFIELD | 2,143 | 52 | 11.8% | 279 | 63.4% | 109 | 24.8% | 440 | |
| ST JOHN | 2,627 | 139 | 24.8% | 297 | 52.9% | 125 | 22.3% | 561 | J |
| ST MARYS | 2,384 | 52 | 11.7% | 208 | 47.0% | 183 | 41.3% | 443 | |
| TOLARS | 1,292 | 155 | 41.1% | 100 | 26.5% | 122 | 32.4% | 377 | JW |
| TOWN HALL | 1,845 | 80 | 25.2% | 187 | 59.0% | 50 | 15.8% | 317 | J |
| WEAVER DAIRY | 3,417 | 125 | 18.5% | 414 | 61.2% | 137 | 20.3% | 676 | |
| WEST HILLSBOROUGH | 2,308 | 198 | 39.2% | 146 | 28.9% | 161 | 31.9% | 505 | JW |
| WESTWOOD | 1,521 | 21 | 12.2% | 111 | 64.5% | 40 | 23.3% | 172 | |
| WHITE CROSS | 1,732 | 99 | 21.1% | 234 | 49.9% | 136 | 29.0% | 469 | |
| ONE STOP HILLSBOROUGH | 0 | 599 | 25.1% | 1,212 | 50.9% | 572 | 24.0% | 2,383 | J |
| ONE STOP CARRBORO | 0 | 552 | 20.6% | 1,546 | 57.6% | 588 | 21.9% | 2,686 | |
| ONE STOP MOREHEAD | 0 | 755 | 16.4% | 2,116 | 45.9% | 1,741 | 37.7% | 4,612 | |
| ONE STOP SEYMOUR | 0 | 249 | 18.7% | 809 | 60.9% | 271 | 20.4% | 1,329 | |
| ABSENTEE BY MAIL | 0 | 68 | 19.2% | 219 | 61.7% | 68 | 19.2% | 355 | |
| PROVISIONAL | 0 | 54 | 38.6% | 49 | 35.0% | 37 | 26.4% | 140 | J |
| TRANSFER | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Totals: | 96,606 | 5,665 | 20.4% | 13,913 | 50.2% | 8,124 | 29.3% | 27,702 | |
(KEY: Jones is highlighted in precincts where she beat Wolff. Wolff is highlighted in precincts where she beat Pelissier. Click here for a Google map of Orange County precints.)
So, is this about rural voters not being comfortable supporting strong environmentalists or African Americans? What are your theories?
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Too bad our local media....
....doesn't ask these questions. I'm not sure the Wolffs are really nuts, but they sure act that way. What are they trying to do or prove by this dual run? It's a good thing that the sun has a better chance of falling from the sky than Mr. Wolff has of being elected in November.
Not shady, but clever
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